Mapping and modeling attributes of an Arctic-Boreal biome shift

Lead

Scott Goetz

Keywords

Arctic tundra, boreal forest, remote sensing, climate change, modeling, vegetation, mapping, shrub, lichen

This project, part of the Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), is designed to assess the evidence for vegetation changes and transitions consistent with expectations of a biome shift resulting from changing climate in the high latitudes of North America. We are investigating the implications of such a shift on both flora and fauna, and exploring options for resource management adaptation to change.

This project is part of ABoVE. More information about this project can be found here.

Determining the vulnerability and resilience of boreal forests and shrubs across Northwestern North America

Lead

Rosanne D’Arrigo (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory)

co-lead

Scott Goetz

Keywords

Vulnerability, resilience, remote sensing, tree-ring studies, greening, browning, biome shift

This project’s integration of remote sensing and tree-ring studies of vegetation will yield a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climatic and environmental change on tree and shrub growth across the taiga and tundra ecosystems of northwestern North America, provide insight into their vulnerability and resilience, and allow inferences to be made on how they are likely to be altered in the future. Tree and shrub growth in the Arctic is important because it regulates climate through a range of feedback mechanisms that are not only complex but also rapidly changing with climate warming.

This project is funded by NSF’s Arctic Natural Sciences program and is affiliated with ABoVE. More information about this project can be found here.

Understanding the causes and implications of enhanced seasonal CO₂ exchange in Boreal and Arctic ecosystems

Lead

Brendan Rogers

co-lead

Scott Goetz

Keywords

CO₂ flux, climate change, productivity, respiration, process model, boreal, arctic

During the last half century, the magnitude of seasonal variability in CO₂ exchange has increased by 30-50% in high latitude environments, with two thirds of this change attributed to increased CO₂ flux in boreal forest and arctic tundra. Mechanisms for this change have been identified but the relative contributions of each of these mechanisms are not well understood. Given that these increases in seasonal CO₂ flux impact carbon cycling and climate feedback in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, it is important to fully understand the underlying mechanisms.

This project is funded by the NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Project and is affiliated with ABoVE. More information about this project can be found here.

Multi-Scale Modeling of Boreal Forest Vegetation Growth Under the Influence of Permafrost and Wildfire Interactions

lead

Adrianna Foster

Keywords

Individual tree-based modeling, boreal forest, climate change

The boreal zone of Alaska is highly influenced by climate and by climate-driven disturbances such as wildfire. Future climate change is likely to cause changes in both the climate and disturbance regimes of interior Alaska.  These changes have the potential to affect the species composition, biomass, and forest structure of the boreal zone.  As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. We are using this updated model to simulate several different scenarios involving interacting climate change, fire, and insect disturbance. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Developing a gap-free digital surface model for Arctic and Boreal North America

Developing a spatially-explicit understanding of fire-climate forcings and their management implications across the ABoVE domain

Lead

Brendan Rogers (Woods Hole Research Center)

Co-Lead

Scott Goetz

Keywords

Fire, boreal forest, net radiative forcing, albedo, carbon consumption, climate change, remote sensing

Fire is the dominant disturbance in boreal North America and regulates ecosystem composition and land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy. Multiple lines of evidence point to an intensification of the fire regime due to climate change; these disturbances, in turn, influence climate through multiple and often counteracting pathways.  We are using remote sensing data to investigate net radiative forcings from forest fires in the ABoVE domain.  We do this by quantifying carbon consumption, long-term changes in albedo and vegetation biomass regrowth, and using this data to model current and future fire forcings.  This work is done in conjunction with fire managers and scientists from various government agencies in Alaska and Canada.

To learn more about this project, see here.